*EVs and India* - Almost one in five cars (18% of total) sold this year will be an electric vehicle, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast, after sales already passed the 10mn mark for the first time globally & expected to touch 14mn this year.
EVs were just 4% of total sales in 2020. The figures include both – pure EVs as well as hybrids which need to be plugged for a charge.
China accounted for almost two thirds of EV sales in 2022, mainly because of a subsidy program. Europe and the US, which also offer incentives, are the second and third largest markets.
The IEA also raised its expectations for electric-car sales, now projecting that 35% of the global total will be electric in 2030, against a forecast 25% a year ago. *Battery-car sales tripled in India. More than half of the three-wheel models sold in India last year were electric.* There is increasing confidence that this global phenomena will also accelerate in India with share of EVs rising rapidly. While less pollution is direct benefit, as this accelerates, *overall Oil import sensitivity for India will continue to decline, including push for other renewable sources of energy.*
India’s net oil imports totaled 3.5% of GDP in 2018-19 for example when average Crude Price was ~$70 during the year. Last fiscal, avg prices were much higher (~95+), yet the overall oil import deficit is the same as 2018-19. At similar prices, the net oil import deficit was higher than 5% during 2011 – 14.
*This is a great positive story for global investors (as well as local) as it reduces external vulnerability over a period of time, providing resilience to INR as well as overall cost of capital.* If Oil prices stabilize at current or lower levels – much better.* - Almost one in five cars (18% of total) sold this year will be an electric vehicle, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast, after sales already passed the 10mn mark for the first time globally & expected to touch 14mn this year.
EVs were just 4% of total sales in 2020. The figures include both – pure EVs as well as hybrids which need to be plugged for a charge.
China accounted for almost two thirds of EV sales in 2022, mainly because of a subsidy program. Europe and the US, which also offer incentives, are the second and third largest markets.
The IEA also raised its expectations for electric-car sales, now projecting that 35% of the global total will be electric in 2030, against a forecast 25% a year ago. *Battery-car sales tripled in India. More than half of the three-wheel models sold in India last year were electric.* There is increasing confidence that this global phenomena will also accelerate in India with share of EVs rising rapidly. While less pollution is direct benefit, as this accelerates, *overall Oil import sensitivity for India will continue to decline, including push for other renewable sources of energy.*
India’s net oil imports totaled 3.5% of GDP in 2018-19 for example when average Crude Price was ~$70 during the year. Last fiscal, avg prices were much higher (~95+), yet the overall oil import deficit is the same as 2018-19. At similar prices, the net oil import deficit was higher than 5% during 2011 – 14.
*This is a great positive story for global investors (as well as local) as it reduces external vulnerability over a period of time, providing resilience to INR as well as overall cost of capital.* If Oil prices stabilize at current or lower levels – much better.
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